Brest vs Sturm Graz: prediction & betting odds 19 Sep 2024

Successes in the past season have earned Stade Brestois 29 and SK Sturm Graz spots in the premier European club competition. Just participating in the League Stage is a significant achievement for both teams, but as the Champions League kicks off, the Austrian side appears to be in much better form than the French side.

In four rounds of Ligue 1, Stade Brestois have already exposed their defensive weaknesses to all their opponents. During this stretch, they have conceded 10 goals and allowed 10.15 xGA (both figures are second-worst in the league). Against Paris Saint-Germain on Saturday (1:3), the team couldn't withstand the attacking pressure of the favourites (0.93 xG vs 2.87 and 5-22 on shots).

Sturm Graz’s sensational championship win in the previous Austrian Bundesliga secured them a direct spot in the Champions League. This season, they continue to capitalise on the instability of Red Bull Salzburg: the team leads the championship with 12 points and 10 goals in 5 matches. In the last round against WSG Tirol (4:2), Sturm Graz came back from 0:2 to secure a victory thanks to numerous chances (18 shots).

At the beginning of this campaign, Stade Brestois switched to a five-defender formation, which has not helped strengthen their defence—in fact, it has made it worse. Without the injured Pierre Lees-Melou and Bradley Locko, the French side even at home risks losing to Sturm Graz due to their lack of squad depth. For a bet, there is an excellent option: the odds on an away goal are quite favourable. Sturm Graz are certain to score at least once.